Introduction
This essay examines whether the establishment of the Latvian state in 1918 was a result of mere historical coincidence or the deliberate will of the Latvian people. Focusing on the critical period surrounding the First World War (1914–1918), it will explore key events, influential personalities, and significant socio-political developments that shaped Latvia’s path to independence. The analysis will argue that while external circumstances, such as the war and the collapse of empires, created opportunities, the emergence of Latvia as a sovereign state was underpinned by the purposeful efforts and national consciousness of the Latvian people. This essay draws on historical evidence to evaluate these factors, offering a balanced perspective on both chance and intent in the nation-building process.
Impact of the First World War
The First World War was a pivotal turning point for Latvia, creating a unique window for independence. Between 1914 and 1918, Latvija, then part of the Russian Empire, was a battleground between German and Russian forces, leading to significant destruction and displacement. Approximately 300,000 Latvians became refugees, and many others served in the Russian army, notably in the Latvian Riflemen units established in 1915 (Plakans, 1995). These military formations not only symbolised Latvian unity but also fostered a sense of national identity amid the chaos of war. Moreover, the 1917 Russian Revolution weakened imperial control, providing a critical opportunity for self-determination. While these events were external and arguably accidental, they catalysed Latvian aspirations for statehood by exposing the fragility of Russian dominance.
Role of National Consciousness and Key Personalities
The deliberate will of the Latvian people was evident in the growing national awakening that predated the war but intensified during it. Since the late 19th century, intellectuals and cultural figures had nurtured a sense of Latvian identity through literature, education, and political activism. During the war, personalities such as Kārlis Ulmanis, a key figure in the Latvian Provisional National Council, played a decisive role. Ulmanis, alongside others like Zigfrīds Anna Meierovics, worked tirelessly to consolidate political support for independence, culminating in the proclamation of the Republic of Latvia on 18 November 1918 (Bleiere et al., 2006). Their efforts demonstrate a clear, purposeful drive rather than reliance on mere chance. Furthermore, organisations like the Latvian People’s Council, formed in 1918, reflected widespread grassroots support for sovereignty, underscoring a collective national will.
External Opportunities and Internal Determination
While external factors—such as the 1918 collapse of both the Russian and German empires—created a power vacuum, the Latvian response was far from passive. The signing of the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk in 1918, which saw Russia cede control of Baltic territories to Germany, temporarily disrupted Latvian ambitions (Von Rauch, 1974). However, with Germany’s defeat later that year, Latvian leaders seized the moment to assert independence. This strategic opportunism, paired with internal resolve evidenced by the mobilisation of the Latvian National Army in 1919 to defend against Bolshevik and German forces, illustrates a blend of circumstance and determination. Indeed, without a pre-existing national consciousness, these opportunities might have been squandered.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the establishment of the Latvian state in 1918 was not merely a fortunate accident but a result of the mērķtiecīga latviešu tautas griba, reinforced by historical circumstances like the First World War. While external events such as the war and imperial collapses provided essential opportunities, the deliberate actions of Latvian leaders like Kārlis Ulmanis, combined with a deep-rooted national consciousness, were instrumental in achieving independence. This duality suggests that Latvia’s statehood emerged from a synergy of chance and intent, with the latter playing a defining role. The implications of this analysis highlight the importance of national agency in navigating global upheavals, offering insights into how small nations can shape their destinies amidst larger geopolitical forces.
References
- Bleiere, D., Butulis, I., Feldmanis, I., Stranga, A., and Zunda, A. (2006) History of Latvia: The 20th Century. Jumava.
- Plakans, A. (1995) The Latvians: A Short History. Hoover Institution Press.
- Von Rauch, G. (1974) The Baltic States: The Years of Independence, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, 1917-1940. University of California Press.

